A report revealed today by the independent think tank energy analysts, Cambridge Econometrics predicts that the government will not meet its 2010 policy goal for a 20% reduction in carbon emissions, but it will almost achieve its target for 2020. It doesn’t seem likely that the UK will meet the longer-term targets set out in the Climate Change Bill. Their forecast suggests that renewables will account for 5% of total electricity generation by 2010, falling short of the 10% target anticipated by the government.
CO2 emissions declined by 2% in 2002, increased by approximately 2% in 2003, with only a slight increase over 2004-5 and an estimated rise of 1% in 2006. The current forecast for the reduction of CO2 emissions by 2010 is 12.75%, which is 12.8% below the 1990 level. This means that the UK is on course to meet its Kyoto Protocol target.
Between 2010 and 15 carbon emissions are expected to stabilise, then decline by around 1.5% pa between 2015 and 2020, with emissions expected to be 15% below the 1990 baseline by 2020.
Cambridge Econometrics has branded the government’s updated greenhouse gas emission projections for 2020, which accompany the 2007 Energy White Paper, as ‘optimistic’. The government’s projections anticipate that greenhouse gas emissions will be 25-31% below the 1990 baseline levels by 2020. The House of Lords and House of Commons Joint Committee Report on the Draft Change Climate Bill, earlier this month noted that the target of a minimum 60% reduction of carbon emissions by 2050, may not be adequate to address the growing problem of climate change and prevent global temperatures elevating above ‘dangerous’ levels. Yet, if the report’s forecasts are accurate, the government’s longer term goals don’t seem likely to transpire.
Friend’s of the Earth’s climate campaigner, Mary Taylor, said:
“We need a fundamental shift in the attitude of Ministers and Government departments and the introduction of concrete policies such as rules for renewable energy in new developments. This report shows the need for a robust legal framework in the Climate Change Bill that will oblige the government to reduce emissions by at least 3% year on year.”
What with this report and a leaked report coming to light last week, demonstrating that the Department for Business, Enterprise and Regulatory Reform (BERR) is searching for ways to enable the UK to avoid EU targets on renewables and low-carbon energy sources, it would seem that the government is desperately trying to wriggle its way out of reducing CO2 emissions. Now there’s a surprise!
From: BEST OF 2008: Eco-friendy and sustainable shoes